Author Archives: payet

UNCTAD’s Global Investment Trend Monitor – January 2018

24 Jan 18
payet
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UNCTAD released its latest Investment Trend Monitor. The results are surprising in view of other positive economic indicators. The key information is that Global Foreign Direct Investment slipped further in 2017.

FDI inflows: global and by group of economies, 2005-2017
(Billions of US dollars)

UNCTAD Secretary-General, Mukhisa Kituyi, insisted that more investment in sectors that could contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) remained badly needed.

  • Global foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by 16% in 2017, to an estimated US$1.52 trillion, from a revised US$1.81 trillion in 2016 – a stark contrast to other macroeconomic variables, such as GDP and trade growth, which saw substantial improvements in 2017.
  • A slump in FDI flows to developed countries (-27%) was the principal factor behind the global decline. A strong decrease in flows was reported in Europe (-27%) as well as in North America (-33%), mainly due to a return to prior levels of inflows in the United Kingdom and the United States after spikes in 2016. This decline was tempered by an 11% growth in flows to other developed economies, principally Australia.
  • FDI to developing economies remained stable, at an estimated US$653 billion, 2% more than the previous year. Flows rose marginally in developing Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean, and remained flat in Africa. Developing Asia regained its position as the largest FDI recipient region in the world, followed by the European Union and North America.

In the last 15 years, developing countries have been affected by two major trends: an upsurge in foreign direct investment (FDI), and their increasing participation in the process of production fragmentation. The new wave of FDI has swept sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, where inflows are becoming more diversified, both geographically (thanks to emerging economies) and sectorally, shifting from exclusive concentration on extractive sectors to light manufacturing and services (Gorg et al. 2013, Sutton 2016). And through their participation in global value chains (GVCs), firms in developing countries have become fully qualified participants in the global market, specialising in specific stages of the production process, and exploiting their comparative advantages without having to develop all the capabilities needed along the whole chain (Baldwin 2014, Taglioni and Winkler 2016, World Bank 2017).

  • FDI to the transition economies declined by 17% to an estimated US$55 billion, mainly due to a drop in the Russian Federation and lacklustre inflows across most of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
  • After three years of growth, cross-border merger and acquisitions (M&As) declined in 2017. Their growth already slowed in 2016; in 2017, they contracted by 23%, to US$666 billion. However, this still represented the third highest level since 2007.
  • Preliminary data on the value of announced greenfield FDI projects show a decline of 32% to US$571 billion (-17% in number of projects), their lowest level since 2003. If confirmed, the drop in greenfield project announcements would be a negative indicator for the longer term. Of particular concern is the near halving of the value of project announcements in developing economies, although the fall in project numbers was limited to 23%.
  • Higher economic growth projections, trade volumes and commodity prices would normally point to a potential increase in global FDI in 2018. However, elevated geopolitical risks and policy uncertainty could have an impact on the scale and contours of any FDI recovery in 2018. In addition, tax reforms in the United States are likely to significantly affect investment decisions by United States MNEs, with consequences for global investment patterns.

Posed to become one of the fatsest growing economy,Prime Minister Narendra Modi – during his recent keynote address at the WEF 2018 – delivered a strong message to the world by calling for unity against protectionism and invited global companies to invest in India. He said due to the structural reforms carried out by the current government, India has opened a « new door of the FDI ». He assured the CEOs and the leaders of world powers that India was ready to take on any challenges like protectionism and terrorism.

 

L’UE propose un nouveau partenariat stratégique aux régions ultrapériphériques (RUP)

30 Oct 17
payet
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Auteur : Jean-Philippe PAYET, Consultant en intelligence stratégique (payet@afrikasources.com)

24 octobre 2017: la Commission Européenne a adopté une nouvelle feuille de route pour ses relations avec les RUP. Elle entend toujours tirer parti de leurs atouts uniques pour ouvrir de nouvelles perspectives à leurs citoyens, doper leur compétitivité et promouvoir l’innovation dans les secteurs prioritaires, tout en renforçant la coopération avec leurs pays voisins. Mais elle pose surtout le principe d’un partenariat à 3 avec «  personnalisé » pour chaque RUP avec leurs Etats membres.

On peut considérer que la singularité des régions en « marge » de l’espace continental européen a été reconnue dès le traité de Rome de 1957 dans son article 227-2 pour les Départements d’outre-mer français (DOM) mais sans que le texte ne se décline en avancées réelles.

Avec l’adhésion de l’Espagne et du Portugal en 1991, les territoires de Madère, des Canaries et des Açores viennent faire émerger un nouveau concept d’ultrapériphéricité et un statut particulier est reconnu à ces entités pour la première fois dans une déclaration annexée au traité de Maastricht de 1992. Depuis 2009, les Régions Ultrapériphériques sont identifiées à l’article 349 du traité sur le fonctionnement de l’Union européenne qui y précise la façon dont le droit européen peut y être adapté.

Le statut de région ultrapériphérique (RUP) s’applique aujourd’hui à neuf territoires appartenant à trois Etats membres de l’Union européenne : la France (Guadeloupe, Guyane, Martinique, Mayotte, La Réunion et Saint-Martin), l’Espagne (îles Canaries) et le Portugal (Açores et Madère).

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Conflict Forecasts: Is Mozambique’s 20 years of peace at risk?

03 Mar 16
payet
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Anago_moz_Pix

Mozambique is forecast to become a leading energy supplier following the discovery of huge gas reserves. But if the government fails to tackle a raft of challenges, it may succumb to the resource curse that has plagued many other resource-rich African countries.

Amid the economic optimism, the political stability that has helped to unlock Mozambique’s potential is under threat.  Tensions are once again mounting between the Frelimo government and the opposition Renamo party, who fought each other in the civil war.  After losing elections in late 2014, Renamo disputed the results of the poll and called for greater autonomy for six of the provinces where it had most supporters.  Outbreaks of violence between government troops and Renamo militia followed, with up to 3,000 fleeing the fighting into neighbouring Malawi since mid-2015.  The simmering conflict is unlikely to spark a civil war, but could lead to further political polarisation.

Read our analysis (on May 2013)

Dynamiques des investissements dans les pays riverains de la Méditerranée

22 Oct 15
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Macro_Ipemed

Malgré leur proximité géographique et culturelle, l’Europe et les Pays du Sud et de l’Est Méditerranéen (PSEM) peinent à élaborer une stratégie économique commune, comme ont pu le faire le Japon des années 1960 avec Asie, ou l’Allemagne des années 1990 avec les Pays d’Europe Centrale et Orientale. Chaque zone pourrait pourtant trouver sur le territoire de l’autre des solutions pour répondre à ses propres défis.
La nécessité d’engager un nouveau mode de collaboration grandit à mesure que des complémentarités structurelles s’affirment, pour les pays et leurs entreprises. Sous l’impulsion de partenariats industriels inclusifs réussis (comme Renault, Siemens, Safran et Sofiprotéol au Maghreb ou encore Jet Alu Maroc et Cevital vers l’Europe), est né le concept de coproduction, défini comme le développement conjoint d’une chaîne de valeur intégrant les partenaires dans des investissements de long terme. Mais si ce mécanisme possède des vertus avérées pour les sociétés des deux rives, la dynamique est encore insuffisante pour générer un développement durable et partagé.
Afin de mesurer l’ampleur de leurs complémentarités, et donc des synergies envisageables, l’Observatoire de la coproduction d’IPEMED nous a chargé d’une analyse comparative de 4 pays du Nord (UE4 : Allemagne, Espagne, France, Italie) et de 7 pays du Sud (PSEM 7 : Algérie, Egypte, Jordanie, Liban, Maroc, Tunisie, Turquie).

Cette étude est disponible sur le site d’IPEMED.